Ian Lurie of Conversation Marketing has put together a compelling list of anti-trends for 2009 that deserves a broader audience. So here it is: Ian’s Top 11 trends to ignore in 2009.
- Analytics. Yeah, you heard me. I love analytics. But they’re gonna flop big-time in 2009 when everyone looks at everyone else and says “Holy crap. There’s no standards!” If a pageview on Google Analytics isn’t a pageview in Omniture, how the hell can anyone compare anything? Look for 2010 to be the Year of the Standards, and for someone to make millions of dollars talking about “Analytics 2.0″. At which point I’ll take out a contract on their worthless lives.
- Vertical Search. I hate to kick that dead dog again, but it sucked in 2007, it sucked in 2008, and it’ll continue to suck wind in 2009, assuming anyone actually bothers to try and start another vertical search service.
- Google Searchwiki. Actually, this service will do well. But spammers will abuse it. After 1 million people bury the #1 listing for “bailout” and it throws Google’s results on their ear, Google will implement new, undocumented policies that render Searchwiki utterly random.
- Mobile Advertising. Someone else called this a trend, saying it’ll “flourish”. I don’t think so. Maybe among us snobby elites, but it takes more than 10,000 to make a serious advertising market.
- RSS. The average web user will continue to refuse to even sniff curiously at RSS.
- Internet Explorer 8. Everyone’s talking about it. I don’t care. Google Chrome and FireFox will continue to take big bites out of IE, which will be released on December 31 2009 so Microsoft can keep their promise.
- Content marketing. 2008 was the Year of Crappy Content. Everyone who thought they could write slapped together an ebook (cough) and threw it on the web for sale. 2009 will be The Year We Go Broke, when we realize spending 4 days to write a 30 page booklet that earns a total of $300 a month isn’t worth it.
- Social Media Conferences. In 2008 these things sprang up like zits on my forehead when I was 14. In 2009 layoffs, travel costs and the utter horror of air travel in the US will thin things out a bit.
- Nofollow. The concept of pagerank sculpting will die a horrific death when Matt Cutts reveals it never existed, and he was just messing with us.
- Twitter monetization. OK, I’m addicted to Twitter, I admit it. But how the hell will Twitter make money?
- Yahoo!’s Downfall. Further indication the world has gone insane: The banking system has collapsed, the Big 3 are bankrupt, we lost 500,000 jobs in November 2008, and we’re bitching about Yahoo!’s “decline”. Why are we mourning the ‘failure’ of the #2 search company on the planet? A company that is profitable?!
Ian concludes sagely: “This is NOT investment advice! As always, I take no responsibility for the accuracy of these predictions. Note that my stock portfolio has lost at least 50% of its value in the last 12 months.”